I’m catching up on stuff which I’ve noted down before and thought “Damn, that’s interesting – must share that with people.” This is one of those things which you read and feel both impressed and depressed by. Pretty persuasive evidence from the Washington Post that the Iranian elections were rigged, from looking at last digit analysis.

This may seem strange, because these digits usually don’t change who wins. In fact, last digits in a fair election don’t tell us anything about the candidates, the make-up of the electorate or the context of the election. They are random noise in the sense that a fair vote count is as likely to end in 1 as it is to end in 2, 3, 4, or any other numeral. But that’s exactly why they can serve as a litmus test for election fraud. For example, an election in which a majority of provincial vote counts ended in 5 would surely raise red flags.

Why would fraudulent numbers look any different? The reason is that humans are bad at making up numbers. Cognitive psychologists have found that study participants in lab experiments asked to write sequences of random digits will tend to select some digits more frequently than others.

Full article here.