{"id":481,"date":"2010-05-05T00:15:56","date_gmt":"2010-05-04T23:15:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=481"},"modified":"2010-05-05T00:15:56","modified_gmt":"2010-05-04T23:15:56","slug":"so-the-general-elections-on-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=481","title":{"rendered":"So the General Election&#8217;s on Thursday&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Come along kind of quickly I think.<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re in the UK, I hope you&#8217;re going to vote this time, even if you&#8217;re opposed to the current political system.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s a really simple reason why it&#8217;s worth it &#8211; this time around it looks like voting reform has a good chance following the election. The Liberal Democrats look like they may hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, and one of their main aims is certain to be voting reform. The lower a percentage of the popular vote that the main parties have, the less valid that maintaining first past the post becomes. Bear in mind that they won&#8217;t be talking about percentages of the electorate, they&#8217;ll be talking about percentages of the vote. Stay at home, spoil your ballot, and you simply don&#8217;t count as far as the political analysis is concerned.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, you might be saying your vote&#8217;s worthless. I&#8217;m not going to lie to you, there&#8217;s a fair chance it is. Have a look at Voter Power Index <a title=\"Voter Power Index\" href=\"http:\/\/www.voterpower.org.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, and see what your vote&#8217;s worth. Mine&#8217;s worth 7.8% of a vote, but I&#8217;ll still be voting &#8211; see the paragraph above for why. Saying that, about 20% of the constituencies have a majority which is less than 5% of the electorate. We&#8217;re looking at the possibility of movements from party to party, and from non-voters to the parties, and from each party to non-voters. It&#8217;s going to be interesting. I&#8217;ve been fiddling with the data from The British Parliamentary Constituency Database 1992-2005 (<a title=\"The British Parliamentary Constituency database, 1992-2005\" href=\"http:\/\/www.hks.harvard.edu\/fs\/pnorris\/Data\/Data.htm\">link<\/a>), and put together something rough to play with all those swings in an Excel file <a title=\"Lots of swings\" href=\"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/sitefiles\/electorate.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>. Change the percentage values on the references page, and the seat totals should change. Just a bit of fun.<\/p>\n<p>Hell, you might even be saying you&#8217;re not even sure who to vote for &#8211; have a look at Vote Match <a title=\"Vote Match\" href=\"http:\/\/www.votematch.org.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>. Personally, I&#8217;d rather you vote for the Lib Dems, but over that I&#8217;d rather you just vote. If you want a read of them, I&#8217;ll link the <a title=\"Conservative Manifesto\" href=\"http:\/\/www.conservatives.com\/Policy\/Manifesto.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Conservative<\/a>, <a title=\"Labour Manifesto\" href=\"http:\/\/www2.labour.org.uk\/manifesto-splash\" target=\"_blank\">Labour<\/a> and <a title=\"Liberal Democrat Manifesto\" href=\"http:\/\/www.libdems.org.uk\/our_manifesto.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">Lib Dem<\/a> manifestos here.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Come on, this is all rubbish &#8211; it&#8217;s not going to be a hung parliament&#8230;&#8221; That would be why the Tories have been screaming about how terrible it would be with a hung parliament, rather than focussing on reasons to vote for them. That would be why Labour have been alternating between begging people not to abandon them, and suggesting tactical voting would be a good idea. That would be why both of them have been saying that a vote for the Lib Dems will let the other one in.<\/p>\n<p>What have the Lib Dems been saying? &#8220;Vote for what you believe in.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>And at that, I&#8217;ll leave it, even if it means you vote for someone else.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Come along kind of quickly I think. If you&#8217;re in the UK, I hope you&#8217;re going to vote this time, even if you&#8217;re opposed to the current political system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pAkBY-7L","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":47,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=47","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":0},"title":"One vote never changed anything&#8230;","author":"MattWPBS","date":"June 8, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm sick of this. I'm sick of this excuse for not taking part in an election. I'm sick of this method people use for shirking responsibility in the democratic process. I'm sick of this when people are shocked that extremists succeed when the majority do not vote. So here's a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":112,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=112","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":1},"title":"Iranian elections, number analysis","author":"MattWPBS","date":"July 20, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm catching up on stuff which I've noted down before and thought \"Damn, that's interesting - must share that with people.\" This is one of those things which you read and feel both impressed and depressed by. Pretty persuasive evidence from the Washington Post that the Iranian elections were rigged,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Politics&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?cat=43"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":176,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=176","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":2},"title":"Balance is a media myth","author":"MattWPBS","date":"July 24, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Absolutely spot on piece in the Irish Times by John Gibbons. There's no more need to give credence to someone who denies global warming or MMR without evidence, than to someone who denies the moon landings or Elvis's death. Commentators thus feel free to \u201cpick a result from anywhere you\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Politics&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?cat=43"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":484,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=484","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":3},"title":"Coalitions, and the mandate.","author":"MattWPBS","date":"May 7, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"There's talk in the opinion pages about the possibilities of coalitions between parties in Parliament, some of which are quite disturbing. A key example is Benedict Brogan's in the Telegraph here. The quote I'd really like to draw your attention to, and which I think does not work in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Politics&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?cat=43"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":300,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=300","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":4},"title":"iPlayer: 13th August 2009","author":"MattWPBS","date":"August 13, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Some recommendations from Monday onwards. Monday 10th August 09:00: MI6: A Century In The Shadows: New Enemies Recommended this previously. Number 3 in the series. Talks about the run up to the Iraq war and the like. BBC page. iPlayer link. 13:30: Round Britain Quiz Ok, this is an absolute\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;iPlayer Recommendations&quot;","block_context":{"text":"iPlayer Recommendations","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?cat=54"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/media.livenation.co.uk\/fido\/\/publishing\/news\/i\/m\/c\/Radio4-new-logo-with-frequency.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":291,"url":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?p=291","url_meta":{"origin":481,"position":5},"title":"Daily links: 11th August 2009","author":"MattWPBS","date":"August 11, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Round up of a few links. The Smoking Gun - Telephone Terrorist - The Smoking Gun goes on the offensive, and tracks down the internet superstars behind Pranknet. A guy who never leaves the house where he lives with his mother, a 51 year old convicted of drug trafficking, a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Links&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Links","link":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/?cat=141"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mattwpbs.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}